The year 2016 is the first year of China's maize market-oriented reform. The state attaches great importance to the transformation of maize processing and "de-stocking" work. The implementation of the eight-year-old temporary storage purchase policy eventually withdrew from the historical stage, replaced by the new policy of "market-oriented acquisition + subsidy", "de-production, inventory, surrender" The five tasks of leverage, pressing costs and filling short boards have become the new normal of China's economic development, and the new corn policy has achieved remarkable results. Recently, the Second Council of the eighth session of the China Starch Industry Association and the Annual Analysis and Forecast Report of China Corn Market and Starch Industry were held in Beijing.
Tong Yi, President of China Starch Industry Association, Secretary-General Wei Xuming and Li Xigui, National Grain and Oil Information Center attended the meeting and made speeches. Dr. Liu Aimin, Agricultural Chief Research Advisor of Agger, made a detailed interpretation of the report at the conference, and made a comprehensive analysis of the corn and starch industry in China. It is learnt that the China Starch Industry Association and Agricultural Agriculture AG regularly issue the annual analysis and forecast report of China's corn market and starch industry (hereinafter referred to as the "report"), trying to create an influential report inside and outside the corn and starch industry, providing valuable reference for the industry.
According to the report, China's maize planting area was 36.76 million hectares in 2016, down 3.6% from a year earlier, and its output was 219.6 million tons, down 2.2% from a year earlier. The total demand for Maize in China reached 1.91 billion tons in 2016, an increase of nearly 25 million tons over the previous year, an increase of 15%. In 2016, the annual average price of corn market was 1911 yuan / ton, a sharp decrease of 17.4% compared with 2314 yuan / ton of last year.
The report predicts that maize acreage will continue to decline by 2017, especially in the northeast, where maize acreage is expected to fall by more than 10 million mu. The total consumption of maize continued to increase, and the consumption of feed and deep-processing maize increased considerably. It is expected that there will be room for growth of 18 million tons to 209 million tons. Corn imports in 2017 will not have obvious price advantage, and corn imports will continue to decline. Domestic corn stocks are high and digestion is difficult. Export will also become an important way to reduce the reserve corn stocks.
In terms of maize starch, China's total production capacity of maize starch in 2016 was about 35 million tons, with the average starting level of the industry exceeding 70%, an increase of about 10 percentage points over the previous year. In 2016, domestic corn starch production showed a recovery growth, reaching a record high of 22.59 million tons, a substantial increase of 2.07 million tons, or 10.1% over 2015.
The report predicts that corn starch output will increase to 24 million 500 thousand tons in 2017, an increase of about 8% over 2016. Maize starch demand in 2017 is expected to reach about 23.5 million tons, an increase of 1 million tons compared with 2016, an increase of about 4%.
Under the background of canceling the purchase policy and destocking corn, it is difficult for corn market price to rise significantly in 2017, and the production cost of corn starch will decrease as a whole. The report predicts that maize processing capacity will increase by more than 10 million tons from 2017 to 2018; maize prices will gradually return to the market and be in line with international standards; export competitiveness will continue to increase; the production of the whole industry will be stable and profit will be good. The 13% export rebate rate of starch will be more significant, and the depreciation of RMB will further enhance the export competitiveness of corn starch.
In addition, the report also provides data on the market of cassava starch, potato starch, sweet potato starch, modified starch, starch sugar, crystalline glucose and glycol in China, and forecasts the current situation and development trend of the industry.
Corn processing enterprises -- change, opportunity and development
Tong Yi, president of the China Starch Industry Association, pointed out at the meeting that under the current complex market background, how corn processing enterprises to survive and seek development is worth pondering. "There is change, opportunity and development." Tong Yi summarized the current development of the industry. He talked about "changes" - first, policy changes. The new corn policy of "market acquisition + subsidy" is beneficial to the development of corn processing enterprises. Two, there are changes in the state of operation. The average start-up level of the corn starch industry has risen from 50% to 70%, indicating that the industry is booming. Three, there are changes in investment. Other industries have stepped up investment in this field.
"Opportunity" - the decentralization of corn processing approval authority, the provinces of corn processing can be autonomous, which means that the main grain producers can roll up their sleeves to dry.
"Developing" - Corn New Deal to the near-collapse of enterprises "revived", while new investors joined, bringing more opportunities for industry development.
Tong Yi believes that under the current complex market situation, there should be more thinking in the industry. For example, what is the conversion of new and old kinetic energy in starch processing enterprises? "In the future, the development of the industry must be driven by innovation and research and development." Tong Yi said. He also pointed out that in order to complement the real market and the virtual market, the industry should use the futures market to prevent and control risks, so as to better develop.
The current characteristics of corn starch industry are high profitability, high demand, good environment and high production capacity.
"High profitability, strong demand, good environment and high production capacity." Li Xigui, an analysis and Forecasting Department of the national grain and oil information center, summed up the current corn starch industry.
First, high profits. Corn starch has ended an extraordinarily long four-year loss period and entered a new profit cycle since last autumn's grain launch, which is expected to last at least a year and a half or longer.
Two, demand is booming. At present, the price of maize starch is in a reasonable level, basically following the trend of maize cost. The current price has dropped to the level of 2009. The demand of starch Market and export are flourishing. As long as the market is persistent, the prospect of maize starch continues to be optimistic, and the starting rate of the industry reaches 75%-80%.
Three, the environment is good. The state actively encourages and guides the development of the processing industry, not only raises the threshold of environmental protection, but also actively simplifies and decentralizes the government. The NDRC has just abolished the registration system for corn processing projects.
The four is high productivity. China is carrying out a wave of capacity increase from 2003 to 2005, which shows that the current capacity can not fully match the demand growth, and the capacity increase conforms to the policy guidance of the national supply-side structural reform, including the rapid increase of capacity, the increase of industry channel inventory and so on.
The development of an industry can not be separated from the leading and driving of benchmarking enterprises. At the meeting, the "Chinese potato starch leading enterprise" was also held. Inner Mongolia Huaou Starch Industry Co., Ltd., Beidahuang Potato Group Co., Ltd., Qinghai Weston Potato Group Co., Ltd., Gansu Blue Sky Potato Development Co., Ltd., Yunnan Yundian Starch Co., Ltd. 5 enterprises won the honor of China's potato starch industry "leading enterprise".
Wei Xuming, secretary-general of China Starch Industry Association, pointed out that "leading enterprises" play a leading role in the development of the industry and can promote the sustainable development of the industry. Gao Rui, Secretary-General of the Potato Starch Committee of the China Starch Industry Association, said that the five enterprises were representatives of outstanding enterprises in the industry and had made remarkable achievements in production scale, product quality, environmental protection, helping potato farmers to increase their income and social responsibility.